AAVEUSD short — 18 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 87.3761 and stopped out at 89.15 after 12.8 hours, closing at -2.03%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-18 22:43 |
| Entry | 87.3761 |
| Stop-loss | 89.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 86.2804 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 85.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 89.15 |
| Realized P&L | -2.03% |
| Time open | 12.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m/4h bear-aligned, 15m/1h mixed), 1h ADX 24.6 falling (slope -3.6), choppiness 37 (low, trending-ish), ER-10 0.62 clean near-term but ER-30 0.04 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.36 (mean-revert), HMM calm — a fading bear push inside a broader mean-reverting chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly short — the freshest momentum is down (net -2.62% 4h, -1.93% 12h, -1.63% 24h), 4h EMA bear-aligned, OI bleeding (agg -2.77%, oi_5m_z -1.96, decelerating). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh near-term momentum cluster — the sharp -2.62% 4h leg with clean ER-10 0.62 and OI falling into the move signals genuine sell-side follow-through, trend-aligned with the 4h/5m bear stacks. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold on 5m (5.8) and 15m (17.9) with top-traders leaning long (pos ratio 1.33) and taker buy 1.18 last hour — a mean-revert bounce off the 5d-low (+2.53% above) would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing / prior intraday supply at 89.15 (dist ~2.0%, ~within rv_24h band); target down toward the 5d-low retest at 85.55 (dist ~2.08%, R:R ~1.03, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce risk keeps this two-way but momentum favors the downside.
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