AAVEUSD short — 24 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 134.13 and hit its target at 131.232 after 5.5 hours, closing at +2.16%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-24 17:39 |
| Entry | 134.13 |
| Stop-loss | 138.2 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.232 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 129.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 131.232 |
| Realized P&L | +2.16% |
| Time open | 5.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA stacks bull_aligned but 5m bear/15m mixed → alignment 0/4, 1h ADX 25.3 with NEGATIVE slope (-1.12, fading), 4h ADX 49 but 4h RSI 65.7 rolling over, choppiness 54.5 (mid), ER-30 0.10 (netting nowhere), HMM volatile 0.995 — a bull structure now unwinding hard with net_move_24h -4.45% and net_move_12h -6.8%. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — the intraday momentum is decisively down (net_move_4h/12h/24h all negative), OI collapsing (agg -17.9%, oi_5m_z -2.23, momentum accelerating_down), taker ratio 0.946 sub-1 — a distribution/deleveraging phase off the highs. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the OI+flow cluster is the strongest — accelerating_down OI unwind (-19.6% recent half) plus sub-1 taker/agg funding still elevated z+1.21 means longs are being flushed, and price is -6.8% off the 5d/20d/90d high having lost momentum; the counter-trend risk is top-traders still heavily long (pos ratio 1.74) — a squeeze-back fuel source. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim back above ~137-138 with OI re-accelerating up (top-trader longs defending) invalidates the short and resumes the uptrend. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 134.13, stop above the fading structure at 138.20 (~3.0% — within the ~6.6% 24h traversal, beyond the reclaim level), target the stretch down at 129.30 (~3.6%, R:R ~1.19, inside clamps) toward the prior consolidation shelf. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but heavy top-trader longs and elevated funding cap downside; p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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