AAVEUSD short — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 127.91 and stopped out at 132.6 after 2.4 hours, closing at -3.67%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 03:43 |
| Entry | 127.91 |
| Stop-loss | 132.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 124.8402 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 122.7936 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 132.6 |
| Realized P&L | -3.67% |
| Time open | 2.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA stacks bull_aligned but 5m bear/15m mixed → alignment 0/4, 1h ADX 24.9 with negative slope (-1.14, fading), 4h ADX 45 but 4h RSI 55 rolling down, choppiness 47.5 (mid), ER-30 0.34, HMM calm 0.9996 — a bull structure now unwinding hard with net_move_24h -8.24% and net_move_12h -4.96%. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — momentum is decisively down and OI is bleeding, though the HTF EMA stack and heavy top-trader longs cut the other way. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI unwind — agg_oi_24h -25.6%, Binance OI -20.4%, oi_5m_z -1.17, oi_momentum decelerating, taker ratio 0.84 (sellers), 4h liq long-share 0.85 (longs being flushed) — a leveraged-long deleveraging in progress; the two prior winning shorts on this asset were built on this exact configuration. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/4h EMA still bull_aligned and top-traders very long (pos ratio 1.83) — a reclaim above ~132 would signal dip-buyers regaining control and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 127.91, stop above the recent swing/EMA reclaim at 132.60 (~3.7% — within 24h rv given 6.9% typical 24h traversal and 131% RV), target the 5d-low region stretch at 122.60 (~4.15% clamped to ~4% / R:R ~1.13 vs stop). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold 5m/15m RSI (18.9/29.4) risks a bounce, so keep meaningful expire.
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