ETHUSD long — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,496.9 and stopped out at 2,456 after 9.4 hours, closing at -1.64%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 03:58 |
| Entry | 2,496.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,456 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,525.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,544.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,456 |
| Realized P&L | -1.64% |
| Time open | 9.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), 4h ADX towering 52/RSI 68.5 with ADX_1h 22.5 slope +2.6 (genuine trend, strengthening); ER-10 0.40 but ER-30 0.08 / choppiness 59 — a real HTF bull structure with a noisy near-term path; Hurst 0.57, HMM calm — bull_trend sitting just under 5d/20d/90d highs (-0.99%). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — every timeframe EMA-aligned bullish, funding positive, top-traders long-heavy. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the trend cluster is the strongest — full_bullish 4/4 with a towering 4h ADX and rising 1h ADX, reinforced by top_trader_pos_ratio 1.86 (long-heavy, rising +0.07 fast/+0.03 slow), fresh ETH ETF inflow +$115.6M, and taker ratio 1.07 buy-lean. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is stretched (z +1.18, 4h RSI 68.5, DVOL 87th pctile, funding_z +1.26) and OI momentum is decelerating — a crowded-long flush back through the 12h base invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2496.95; stop below the recent 1h consolidation shelf at 2456.0 (~1.64% risk, inside the ~4% 24h ATR range); stretch target 2544.5 (~1.90% reward, R:R ~1.16, inside clamps) at the 5d-high retest zone reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~4%. 6. EXPECTATION: strong HTF trend but stretched/choppy near-term path favors TP over SL with meaningful expire risk.
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