AAVEUSD short — 26 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 122.9642 and stopped out at 126.6 after 7.7 hours, closing at -2.96%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-26 14:38 |
| Entry | 122.9642 |
| Stop-loss | 126.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 120.6757 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 119.15 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 126.6 |
| Realized P&L | -2.96% |
| Time open | 7.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull_aligned but 1h mixed, 5m/15m bear → alignment 2/4, mtf mixed/transitional; 1h ADX 34.2 with positive slope (+3.3), choppiness 51 (mid), ER-10/30 ~0.31-0.39, HMM calm 0.999 — a bull HTF structure unwinding hard intraday. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — near-term momentum and flow are clearly down (net_move_24h -4.53%, -12h -3.77%, -4h -3.20%), OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -2.98, agg_oi_24h -7.1%, oi_momentum accelerating_down), taker 0.766 sell-heavy. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: this exact setup has repeatedly resolved down on AAVE — the strongest cluster is flow/OI, with accelerating_down OI, sell-side takers, and funding still elevated (z +1.08) signaling crowded longs unwinding; ADX rising into the down leg confirms trend, not chop. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI ~29-31 oversold plus top-trader pos ratio 1.92 (heavy long) could spark a sharp reclaim bounce above ~125.5. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the intraday reclaim / recent congestion at 126.85 (~3.2% above), just past invalidation; TP at 119.15 structural support toward the 5d-low zone (~3.1% below), R:R ~0.97 — nudge stop to 126.60 to keep R:R >=1.0; span well within the 7.4% avg 24h traversal. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum/flow favor down but oversold RSI raises bounce risk.
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