AAVEUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 122.27 and hit its target at 120.038 after 17 minutes, closing at +1.83%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:08 |
| Entry | 122.27 |
| Stop-loss | 125.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 120.038 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 118.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 120.038 |
| Realized P&L | +1.83% |
| Time open | 17 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull but 1h/15m/5m bear-leaning → alignment 2/4 mixed, 1h ADX 10.5 with negative slope (fading), choppiness 54 (mid), ER-30 0.17 (path netting little), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-conviction structure now rolling over with a fresh down-leg (net_move_4h -2.46%, 24h -5.40%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — near-term momentum is clearly down, OI is bleeding (agg_oi_24h -9.87%, oi_5m_z -1.88, decelerating), taker ratio 0.72 (sellers pressing), price sitting at the 5d/20d/90d low (-15% from highs, +0% from 5d_low). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — OI unwinding on a down-move with sub-1 taker ratio confirms shorts/longs-capitulating drives price; the 4h bull stack is exhausted (RSI 41, fading ADX) so I lean with the fresh bear momentum despite the counter-trend HTF read. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-traders are heavily long (pos_ratio 2.20, rising) and this asset's track record leans long-biased — a bounce off the 5d_low with these longs defending would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 122.27; stop above the recent swing / intraday resistance at 125.35 (~2.5% risk, within ~1x the ~6.8% 24h traversal), target the round/structural extension at 118.55 (~3.0%, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps) reachable given avg_move_24h 6.8%. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but crowded longs and oversold RSI cap it — p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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