SLVONUSD long — 28 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SLVONUSD entered at 61.5328 and stopped out at 60.42 after 12 minutes, closing at -1.81%.
| Asset | SLVONUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 16:08 |
| Entry | 61.5328 |
| Stop-loss | 60.42 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62.3531 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 60.42 |
| Realized P&L | -1.81% |
| Time open | 12 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 mixed (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull-aligned), 1h ADX 24.1 but slope -0.63 fading, ADX-20 16.1, ER_30 0.062 nets nowhere, choppiness 44.3, Hurst 0.22 (strongly mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a stalled higher-TF bull structure that just took a sharp near-term hit. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is decisively down (net -4.1% 4h, -2.6% 24h) and price sits at the 5d/90d low (-4.1% from high, only +0.2% off the 5d low), 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (22/30) — but Hurst 0.22 + oversold RSI + z-score -0.90 argue mean-reversion, and OI is accelerating_up (+10.4% recent half, oi_15m_z +1.27) with top-traders heavily long (acct 2.55, pos 1.64 rising) leaning bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: I favor a mean-reversion long — Hurst 0.22 flags a strongly reverting series, price is pinned right at the 5d/20d low after a violent -4.1% 4h flush into oversold RSI, and OI momentum + top-trader positioning are building longs into the weakness; this asset's track record shows repeated bounce-buys off compressed lows working. 4. PRE-MORTEM: silver spot (XAG -2.1% 24h) keeps bleeding and the 5d/20d low gives way — a clean break below invalidates the reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the 5d/20d low structure at 60.42 (~1.8% risk, in line with elevated rv), target the stretch back into the 4h EMA region at 62.90 (~2.2% up), R:R ~1.2. 6. EXPECTATION: RV is extreme (99th pctile), so a reversion bounce is plausible but the downtrend momentum is real.
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