AAVEUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 121.35 and stopped out at 124.866 after 16.7 hours, closing at -2.90%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 22:08 |
| Entry | 121.35 |
| Stop-loss | 124.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 118.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 117.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 124.866 |
| Realized P&L | -2.90% |
| Time open | 16.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull_aligned but 1h mixed and 15m/5m bear_aligned → alignment 2/4 mixed/transitional; 1h ADX 20 with positive slope (+4.3, strengthening), choppiness 43.6 (mid), ER-10 0.66 / ER-30 0.44 (recent path fairly clean and directional down), HMM calm 0.999 — a bull-stacked HTF rolling over into a fresh down-leg (net_move_4h -0.54%, 24h -5.71%). 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — near-term momentum down, OI bleeding, taker selling; two prior AAVE shorts on this exact rollover pattern won. 3. THESIS: flow cluster is unambiguously bearish — oi_change_24h -7.2%, agg_oi -6.08%, oi_5m/15m_z at -1.17/-1.26, momentum decelerating, taker_buy_sell 0.72 with recent hourly buckets clustered <0.80 — longs unwinding into selling pressure, and lower-TF EMAs (5m/15m bear) confirm the near-term down structure with ADX slope rising. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 29.8 is oversold and price sits +0.25% off the 5d low — a reclaim bounce back through ~124 with the 4h bull stack reasserting would invalidate. 5. LEVELS: entry 121.35, stop 124.85 (above recent 1h reclaim/consolidation shelf and the oversold-bounce zone, ~2.9% ≈ within realized range), take_profit_1 117.10 for the fresh-low probe (~3.5% / ~1.2x stop distance, inside clamps, reachable given avg 24h traversal 6.8%). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + at 5d low tempers downside odds; base rate favors modest short-win.
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