DOGEUSD short — 28 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.084779 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.08545 with a price move of -0.79%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 19:08 |
| Entry | 0.084779 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08718 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.082932 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.0817 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.08545 |
| Realized P&L | -0.79% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear_aligned, 1h mixed RSI 32.6, 4h bull_aligned but ADX only 17), 1h ADX 28.6 slope +7.3 (downside trend firming), ER-10 0.32 / ER-30 0.28 / choppiness 45 / Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting, low conviction), HMM calm 99.8% — a fresh downside impulse inside a choppy tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is clearly down (-1.35%/4h, -3.23%/12h, -4.41%/24h) with OI bleeding hard — the short side has the edge, and this exact setup won twice recently on DOGE. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster is decisive — oi_5m_z -1.38, oi_15m_z -1.43, agg_oi -8.9%, oi_momentum accelerating_down, taker 0.867 (sellers), funding unwinding (agg_z -1.54, momentum -1.45) — longs exiting into a firming 1h downtrend (ADX slope +7.3), trend-aligned on the lower TFs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the 4h EMA stack is still bull_aligned and price sits +0.43% off the 5d low — a reclaim of ~0.0862 with a taker flip would invalidate the short and risk a mean-revert bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing/reclaim zone at 0.08718 (~2.8% above); target down toward a structural continuation level at 0.08170 (~3.6% below), RR ~1.3x, within clamps and reachable given avg 24h traversal 4.4%. 6. EXPECTATION: downside flow favored but chop/mean-revert cap conviction — p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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