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AAVEUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 122.8447 and hit its target at 120.9879 after 15 minutes, closing at +1.51%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 12:33 |
| Entry | 122.8447 |
| Stop-loss | 125.65 |
| Take-profit 1 | 120.9879 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 119.75 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 120.9879 |
| Realized P&L | +1.51% |
| Time open | 15 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear-aligned with 1h ADX 42.2 rising (+4.4 slope), 4h mixed but 4h RSI 28.9 oversold; ER-10 0.70 confirms a clean recent down-leg, choppiness 55 borderline, Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a genuine active bear-trend leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — trend stack bearish across 5m/15m/1h, net_move_24h -4.98%, price at 5d/20d/90d low (dist_from_extrema 0.0 above lows). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend + momentum — bear EMA stack with rising 1h ADX 42 and a fresh breakdown to new lows, taker ratio 0.888 sell-skewed, OI bleeding (-7.7% 24h, oi_5m_z -2.14) confirming a shorts-in-control unwind rather than a bounce. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z-score -2.29 and 4h RSI 28.9 are deeply stretched, top-traders sit heavily long (pos_ratio 2.21) — a mean-reversion snap-back would invalidate; reclaim above ~125.5 kills the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 122.84, stop above the intraday breakdown/reclaim shelf at 125.65 (~2.3% risk, within rv/atr range); TP1 stretch at 119.75 (~2.5% reward, R:R ~1.1) targeting continuation extension below the new low. 6. EXPECTATION: bear trend intact but oversold-stretched, so meaningful bounce risk — p_tp1 44 / p_sl 38 / p_expire 18.
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