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PAXGUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,345 and stopped out at 4,372.1 after 1.1 hours, closing at -0.62%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 12:33 |
| Entry | 4,345 |
| Stop-loss | 4,372.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,324.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,310.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,372.1 |
| Realized P&L | -0.62% |
| Time open | 1.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 4h/1h/5m bear_aligned, 15m mixed; 1h ADX 15.9 slope +3.7 (weak trend building on the down-leg), choppiness 38.3 (trending edge), ER-10 0.64 clean short-run, Hurst 0.48 neutral, HMM calm — a calm gold pullback with a fresh, efficient down-leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — net_move_pct_4h -1.17%, net_24h -1.31%, gold spot -1.12% 24h, RSI oversold across all TFs but no reclaim, rolling z -1.72 stretched down yet still trending. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack on 3 of 4 TFs plus the freshest efficiency (ER-10 0.64) and net moves all negative confirms the down-leg is still in force; top-trader long ratio 2.72 is a crowded-long contrarian tailwind for downside. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 18.5, 15m 17.6, 1h 29.8) and z -1.72 — a mean-reversion bounce reclaiming ~4360 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4345.02; stop 4372.1 just above the recent consolidation shelf / reclaim zone (~0.62% ≈ 0.75x rv_24h daily range); take_profit_1 4310.6 targeting continuation toward the intraday low extension (~0.79%, R:R ≈ 1.27, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold risk of bounce keeps p_sl meaningful, but trend + flow favor continuation.
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