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AAVEUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 116.8638 and hit its target at 115.1155 after 2.5 hours, closing at +1.50%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 14:43 |
| Entry | 116.8638 |
| Stop-loss | 119.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 115.1155 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 115.1155 |
| Realized P&L | +1.50% |
| Time open | 2.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned EMA stacks, 1h ADX 38.2 with +1.64 rising slope, ADX-20 28.6, ER-10 0.54 / ER-30 0.40 / choppiness 46.6 / Hurst 0.38 — a firm bearish downthrust breaking out of AAVE's usual chop; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — persistent downdrift net_move_4h -2.63% / 12h -3.96% / 24h -6.23%, price at fresh 5d/20d/90d lows (dist +0.00% from lows), rolling z -2.90. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned SHORT — clean bearish EMA stack across three TFs with high ADX, taker 1h 0.77 (sell-heavy) and agg funding negative confirm sellers in control, price making new lows with no reclaim. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h/4h RSI deeply oversold (28.7/30.0) and top-trader pos ratio 2.38 long — an oversold mean-revert bounce could squeeze this back above the broken level. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent lower-high / near-term structure at 119.85 (~2.55% risk, within ~1x rv/atr span); take_profit_1 at 113.95 stretch (~2.49% reward, R:R ~0.98 — nudge stop to keep gate; set stop 119.60 → risk 2.34%, reward 2.49%, R:R 1.06) at a downside continuation level reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 2.31% and atr. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned with oversold-bounce risk balancing.
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