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AAVEUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 115.6036 and hit its target at 113.8314 after 39 minutes, closing at +1.53%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 17:13 |
| Entry | 115.6036 |
| Stop-loss | 118.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 113.8314 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 112.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 113.8314 |
| Realized P&L | +1.53% |
| Time open | 39 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned EMA stacks, 1h ADX 41.8 rising (+3.5 slope), ADX-20 31.6, ER-10 0.49 / ER-30 0.42 / choppiness 38.7 (trending edge), Hurst 0.39 — a firm bearish downthrust breaking out of AAVE's usual chop; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — persistent downdrift net_move_4h -1.51% / 12h -4.50% / 24h -8.70%, price pinned at the 20d/90d low, but 1h/15m RSI 27-28 oversold is a caution. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend cluster (mtf bear stack + rising ADX 41.8 + choppiness <39) plus flow cluster (taker ratio 0.71 sell-heavy, recent hourly ratios cluster <0.8, agg OI -3.83% and Binance OI z -2.2 decelerating as shorts drive price down) — trend-aligned continuation; the prior three AAVE shorts on the identical setup all won. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 27 oversold at fresh 90d low + rolling z -3.04 sets up a sharp mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim of ~117.5 with buy-side takers would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 115.60, stop 118.05 above the recent breakdown shelf / prior consolidation (2.12% ≈ 0.9x the 24h rv-derived range), stretch TP 112.65 at next structural level below (2.55% down, R:R ~1.2), inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but oversold stretch/z-score raises bounce and expiry odds.
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