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AAVEUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 116.11 and stopped out at 118.75 after 5.1 hours, closing at -2.27%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 18:13 |
| Entry | 116.11 |
| Stop-loss | 118.75 |
| Take-profit 1 | 114.334 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.15 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.12 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 118.75 |
| Realized P&L | -2.27% |
| Time open | 5.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned EMA stacks, 1h ADX 42.1 rising (+2.74 slope), ADX-20 32.2, ER-30 0.41, choppiness 38.5 (trending edge), Hurst 0.39 — a firm bearish downthrust; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — persistent downdrift net_move_4h -0.30% / 12h -3.74% / 24h -6.87%, taker ratio 0.64 (sellers dominant), OI bleeding (oi_change -5.37%, oi_5m_z -2.23, momentum accelerating_down) confirming a genuine unwind not a squeeze. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow cluster aligned — bear EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h with rising ADX, sub-1.0 taker ratio for most recent hours, and accelerating OI decline is a clean momentum short into the trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 29 oversold + z-score -2.85 + price only +1.64% off 5d/20d/90d low → a mean-reversion bounce off the low would invalidate; top_trader_pos_ratio 2.35 still net-long is a mild counter. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 116.11, stop above recent structure at 118.75 (~2.28%, within rv), stretch target down at 113.15 (~2.55%, R:R ~1.12) toward a fresh leg-low, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 2.40% and elevated RV. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched into a support zone, so meaningful bounce risk — p_tp1 46 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 20.
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