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AAVEUSD short — 20 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 135.87 and stopped out at 139.5 after 13.8 hours, closing at -2.67%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-20 10:30 |
| Entry | 135.87 |
| Stop-loss | 139.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 133.248 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 131.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 139.5 |
| Realized P&L | -2.67% |
| Time open | 13.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA stacks bull-aligned but 5m/15m rolled bear (alignment 0/4 mixed), 1h ADX 35.4 rising (+1.21 slope), ADX-20 31.9, ER-10 0.78 (clean recent one-way move) but ER-30 0.32, choppiness 49, Hurst 0.57, HMM calm 0.999 — a mature bull now unwinding hard intraday. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — net_move 4h -0.80% / 12h -3.92% / 24h -5.14%, ER-10 0.78 confirms the recent path is cleanly downward, OI bleeding (-6.1% 24h, oi_5m_z -1.49, oi_15m_z -1.49, decelerating), aggregate OI -5.2%. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster leads — falling price on falling OI is long liquidation/de-risking, taker ratio 0.94 sub-1, funding still elevated (z +1.01) so crowded longs remain to be flushed; 5m/15m bear stacks align short-term with the down-move. Counter-signal: top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.33) and 4h EMA still bull — this is a counter-HTF fade of a pullback, so keep confidence modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim back above ~138 with rising OI would reassert the 4h bull leg and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 135.87, stop above the recent bounce/reclaim shelf at 139.35 (2.56% ≈ half the 5% 24h range), target down at 131.5 structural support (3.22% ≈ 1.26x stop distance, inside 4% clamp), RR ~1.26. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum + OI unwind favor continuation but strong top-trader longs and 4h bull cap odds.
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