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AAVEUSD short — 24 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 136.2045 and stopped out at 139.75 after 3.9 hours, closing at -2.60%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-24 09:23 |
| Entry | 136.2045 |
| Stop-loss | 139.75 |
| Take-profit 1 | 133.7418 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 132.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 139.75 |
| Realized P&L | -2.60% |
| Time open | 3.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Transitional/mixed MTF (2/4) — 5m/15m bear-aligned, 1h mixed, 4h still bull-aligned; 1h ADX 25.6 (slope +0.31), choppiness 63.9 (chop), ER-10 0.25, Hurst 0.61, HMM calm — a sharp -9.3% 24h flush inside a still-intact 4h bull structure, near-term downtrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but I lean SHORT-to-cautious-LONG; the near-term momentum is clearly down (net -9.2% 24h, -2.1% 4h, bear-aligned LTFs, OI bleeding -8.6%), yet 4h EMA still bull and top-traders very long — I'll take the near-term momentum SHORT with modest confidence since 5m/15m align down and price just cracked toward the 5d low. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is momentum+structure — 5m/15m bear stacks, RSI 29/32 rolling over, taker ratio 0.719 (sellers pressing), agg OI -9.4% (longs capitulating), price -11.6% off 5d high with a broken level; funding still positive/top-traders 2.34 long = crowded longs that can fuel more downside on continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: this is a deep oversold flush (RSI 29 on 5m, +1.6% off 5d low) inside a 4h uptrend — a reclaim bounce off the low would invalidate the short quickly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 136.20; stop above the 4h intraday reclaim/recent shelf at 139.75 (~2.6% risk, within the ~7.6% avg daily range); TP at 132.10 (~3.0% below, ~1.15x risk) targeting a push toward the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: given oversold bounce risk against still-bull 4h, p_tp1 39 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 24.
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