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ETHUSD short — 24 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,643 and stopped out at 2,688.5 after 4.8 hours, closing at -1.72%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-24 09:38 |
| Entry | 2,643 |
| Stop-loss | 2,688.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,610 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,588 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,688.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.72% |
| Time open | 4.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h mixed, 15m/5m bear-aligned (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, regime transitional); 1h ADX 27.5 slope -1.86 (trend present but fading), ER-10/30 ~0.42-0.45 (mid), choppiness 50 (mid), Hurst 0.61 (persistent), HMM calm 1.0 — a maturing 4h uptrend rolling into short-TF weakness with -3.3% 24h, -1.4% 4h. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence leans short — recent momentum is decisively down, OI bleeding (-6.1% 24h, oi_5m_z -1.9, decelerating), and the prior ETHUSD short signals in exactly this configuration all won (+1.04/+1.09/+1.48%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI down -6.1% into a falling price is longs unwinding, 1h taker ratio 0.70 (sellers dominant now), agg OI -7.6%; this aligns with the 5m/15m bear stacks driving the near-term tape below the fading 4h uptrend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 25 (oversold) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.53 (still net long) risks a mean-reversion bounce reclaiming ~2670. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2643.01; stop above 5m/15m structure and the reclaim zone at 2688.5 (~1.72% risk, within 1x the ~2.5% typical 24h traversal / rv); target stretch 2588.0 (~2.08% reward, R:R ~1.2x, inside clamps) at the prior 5d-low support shelf. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold near-term tempers it.
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