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AAVEUSD short — 28 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 145.3846 and stopped out at 149.93 after 2.3 hours, closing at -3.13%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-28 14:53 |
| Entry | 145.3846 |
| Stop-loss | 149.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 142.6938 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 140.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 149.93 |
| Realized P&L | -3.13% |
| Time open | 2.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Transitional/pullback — MTF 2/4 (5m/15m bear-aligned oversold RSI 29/31, 1h mixed, 4h still bull-aligned), 1h ADX 31.5 with negative slope (-1.14, fading), choppiness 43.7, ER-10 0.33/ER-30 0.35, Hurst 0.54, HMM calm 1.0 — a mature 4h bull structure now in a sharp near-term downdraft. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but I lean SHORT near-term — net -1.97% 4h, -3.98% 12h, -5.22% 24h, aggregate OI -10.7% and Binance OI z -2.0 (positions being flushed on the way down), delta funding still positive 0.16 (longs paying, room to unwind). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + flow cluster — persistent downdraft across 4h/12h/24h with OI bleeding out (decelerating, oi_5m_z -2.0) confirms leveraged longs unwinding, and the prior analyst's short setups on near-identical tape won three times (+1.9/+2.2/+1.7%); ADX slope now fading means the 1h trend is losing conviction but price is still under near-term EMAs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h is still bull_aligned and 5m/15m RSI is deeply oversold (~29-31) — an oversold bounce reclaiming ~148 with taker buys (last bucket 1.01) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss at 149.85 above the near-term structure/oversold-bounce zone (~3.1% risk, within 1x the 89% rv_24h daily range); take_profit_1 at 141.20 targeting the 5d-low region (~2.88% reward), R:R ~0.93 — nudge TP to 140.95 for R:R ≥ 1.0 at a reachable structural low within 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold + strong top-trader long ratio (2.4) argue for chop/bounce risk.
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