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AAVEUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 158.7732 and hit its target at 156.6293 after 32 minutes, closing at +1.35%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 13:35 |
| Entry | 158.7732 |
| Stop-loss | 162.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 156.6293 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 155.2 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 156.6293 |
| Realized P&L | +1.35% |
| Time open | 32 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional chop with a bear lean — EMA bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), ADX_1h 17.4 fading (slope -1.33), choppiness 49.1 (neutral), ER-10 0.37 / ER-30 0.10 (longer-horizon nets nowhere), Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Mild short lean — bear EMA stack across 3 TFs, net -0.64% 4h / -1.93% 12h, price -1.53 z below 20d mean, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.74, oi_15m_z -3.13) confirming fresh unwind to the downside. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Flow+structure cluster — accelerating_down OI with sharp negative OI z-scores plus bear EMA alignment on fast TFs point to continuation lower; this matches the prior winning short pattern on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: Price is washed out (-1.53 z, Hurst mean-reverting, 1h RSI 41 oversold-ish, taker 1h 0.70 but that's sell-heavy supporting short) — a reclaim of the 161 area with top-trader longs (pos ratio 1.89) squeezing would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 158.77, stop above the recent swing/invalidation at 162.10 (~2.1% ~ within 1x daily range given avg 24h traversal 2.7% and rv pctile 26%), target 155.20 structural level toward 5d-low region, RR ~1.07, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: Momentum favors downside but chop + oversold cap conviction.
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