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AAVEUSD short — 14 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 159.0418 and hit its target at 156.8567 after 47 minutes, closing at +1.37%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 12:35 |
| Entry | 159.0418 |
| Stop-loss | 161.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 156.8567 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 155.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 156.8567 |
| Realized P&L | +1.37% |
| Time open | 47 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional chop with a mild bear lean — EMA bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), ADX_1h 17.7 fading (slope -1.48), choppiness 54.2 (neutral), ER-10 0.42 / ER-30 0.12 (near-term semi-clean, longer-horizon nets nowhere), Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Mild short lean — bear EMA stack across 3 TFs, net -0.46% 4h / -1.73% 12h, OI momentum accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.85, oi_change_recent_half -1.64%) with price unwinding, but it's chop not a clean trend. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Short is trend-aligned with the bear EMA stack and accelerating_down OI (positions being cut on the way down), consistent with this asset's winning short attributions; funding z deeply negative (agg -1.52) shows no crowded-long fuel to squeeze. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 1.87 (heavily long) + rolling_z -1.50 (washed out, mean-reversion risk) + fear_greed 62 Greed — a reclaim of the 1h EMA with a bounce off the -1.5z level invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 159.04, stop 161.95 above the 4h/recent swing and bear-stack invalidation (~1.83% ≈ 0.6x daily range), target 155.40 at the 5d-low vicinity (R:R ≈ 1.25x, within clamps, ~2.3% reachable inside 24h traversal of 2.73%). 6. EXPECTATION: thin single-cluster lean in chop — modest edge, meaningful expire odds.
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