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AAVEUSD short — 15 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 150.64 and hit its target at 147.496 after 11.3 hours, closing at +2.09%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-15 02:35 |
| Entry | 150.64 |
| Stop-loss | 155.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 147.496 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 145.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 147.496 |
| Realized P&L | +2.09% |
| Time open | 11.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm bear trend — EMA bear_aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), ADX_1h 25.2 rising (slope +3.7), choppiness 30.4 (trending), ER-10 0.81 (clean near-term down), Hurst 0.45 (mild mean-reversion), HMM calm 0.9999; price -6.57% 24h sitting on 5d/20d/90d lows, z -2.34. 2. LEAN CHECK: Short lean — fresh accelerating downside momentum (net -2.05% 4h / -3.92% 12h / -6.94% 24h), bear EMA stack across 3 TFs, taker ratio 0.89 sell-skewed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Strongest cluster is trend+momentum — a clean trending down-move (ER-10 0.81, choppiness 30, ADX rising) with price on fresh lows; this asset's track record skews heavily to winning shorts in exactly this calm-bear setup. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (1h 24.3, 4h 27.4) at z -2.34 plus top-traders long-skewed (pos ratio 1.84) and OI accelerating_up with oi_change_recent_half +2.8% — a reflexive oversold bounce would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 150.64; stop above the intraday reclaim pivot at 155.10 (~2.96%, within ~1x the 4h atr/rv range); stretch TP down at 145.40 (~3.48%, R:R ~1.17, inside clamps) targeting continuation toward the next structural shelf. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but oversold stretched, so meaningful bounce risk.
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