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AAVEUSD short — 25 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 136.5046 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 138.41 with a price move of -1.40%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-25 15:12 |
| Entry | 136.5046 |
| Stop-loss | 140.2 |
| Take-profit 1 | 133.5918 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 131.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 138.41 |
| Realized P&L | -1.40% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bear-leaning but losing conviction — mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (15m/1h/4h bear_aligned, 5m mixed), ADX_1h 38.2 slope -2.1 (genuine trend but fading), choppiness 53 neutral, ER-10 0.07 / ER-30 0.20 (noisy, nets nowhere), Hurst 0.42 near-random, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Marginal — recent down structure (net -1.05% 12h) but 4h flat (+0.01%) and 24h actually +1.07%, price sits at 5d/20d/90d lows (+1.07% off low), z-score -2.06 deeply stretched; the bear trend is still the higher-TF default but momentum has stalled. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Lean short with the fading-but-intact HTF bear stack (1h/4h bear_aligned, ADX>38) — but it's weak: OI momentum accelerating_down (-0.66% recent half), agg_funding_z -1.50 (shorts not crowded, room to push), top-trader pos ratio 1.92 long is the main contradiction. 4. PRE-MORTEM: Price is -2σ and parked at 90d lows with ER near zero and 4h flat — a mean-revert bounce/reclaim off the low invalidates the short quickly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 136.50; stop above recent 1h structure at 140.20 (2.7% ~ 0.5x the 5.77% 7d range, beyond the stall highs); target down at 131.65 (3.55% / ~1.3x stop distance), a reachable extension below the 90d low within 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stalled, stretched oversold — modest edge, meaningful expire risk.
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