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BTCUSD short — 25 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 80,401.7 and hit its target at 79,632.7 after 11 hours, closing at +0.96%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-25 14:42 |
| Entry | 80,401.7 |
| Stop-loss | 81,420 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,632.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,120 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 79,632.7 |
| Realized P&L | +0.96% |
| Time open | 11 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all EMA bear-aligned), 1h ADX 34.6 (slope -1.4, firm but easing), 4h ADX 32.3, choppiness 49.7, ER_10 0.31 / ER_30 0.06 (noisy longer path), Hurst 0.52 neutral, HMM calm — a genuine but slightly fading bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — full bearish stack, OI accelerating_down, agg_oi -1.14%, net_move_12h -0.59%, price z-score -1.45 below 20d mean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend (4/4 bear EMA stack + ADX >30 on both 1h/4h) backed by OI momentum accelerating_down and agg funding z +1.06 (crowded-long pressure to unwind) — trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits only +0.80% off 5d/20d/90d low with z-score -1.45 and RV at 12.8th pctile — a mean-reversion bounce/short-squeeze from stretched-oversold would invalidate; top-trader pos ratio 1.67 and taker 1.17 last hour show buyers leaning in. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 80,401.69; stop above recent intraday structure at 81,420 (~1.27% stop, within the 2.4% daily range); take_profit_1 at 79,120 (~1.59% move, R:R ~1.26, inside clamps) targeting a push toward the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors short but oversold stretch and near-low position raise bounce/expire odds.
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