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AAVEUSD short — 27 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 131.6246 and stopped out at 134.35 after 14.9 hours, closing at -2.07%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-27 06:42 |
| Entry | 131.6246 |
| Stop-loss | 134.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 129.5998 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 128.25 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 134.35 |
| Realized P&L | -2.07% |
| Time open | 14.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Full bearish — mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear_aligned), ADX_1h 21.9 slope +2.1 (genuine trend, mildly strengthening), choppiness 42.5 (neutral-to-trending), ER-10 0.43 / ER-30 0.18 (semi-directional, nets little longer out), Hurst 0.43, HMM calm 0.9999; an intact but moderate downtrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: Short lean — EMA bearish all 4 TFs, fresh down impulse (net -1.53% 4h, -2.45% 12h), OI accelerating_down, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist 0.000). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — full_bearish stack plus accelerating_down OI (oi_momentum_state accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -0.37) and fresh down momentum at the lows; funding still positive (z +1.53, agg z +1.28) means longs crowded and fuel for further liquidation lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 29 (oversold) + top_trader_pos_ratio 2.22 (strongly long) and rolling z -1.92 — a stretched oversold bounce/reclaim of ~134 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 131.62; stop above the recent 134.2 shelf at 134.35 (~2.07%, ~0.9x the 24h realized range); stretch target at next structural support zone ~128.25 (~2.56% below, R:R ~1.23, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-but-trending bear with crowded longs; p_tp1 46, p_sl 36, p_expire 18.
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