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AAVEUSD short — 3 Nov 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 128.4912 and hit its target at 126.1865 after 15.2 hours, closing at +1.79%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-03 09:08 |
| Entry | 128.4912 |
| Stop-loss | 131.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 126.1865 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 124.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 126.1865 |
| Realized P&L | +1.79% |
| Time open | 15.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (15m/1h/4h bear_aligned, 5m mixed from a bounce), ADX_1h 30.5 but slope -4.6 (strong but fading), choppiness 52.0 (mid), ER-10 0.25/ER-30 0.32 (noisy path), Hurst 0.40 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a bear-biased tape with an active DOWN impulse losing some momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — price -3.52% 24h, net_move_24h -2.45%, HTF stack bear_aligned on 15m/1h/4h, OI accelerating_down with oi_change_recent_half -1.99% (shorts pressing as price falls), Fear 26. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF bear stack (15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned) + accelerating_down OI momentum is the strongest cluster; the recent track record shows AAVE shorts on fresh-down-impulse tape have repeatedly won here. Counterweight: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.18 (heavily long) and funding z +1.48 (crowded long) actually favor a continued flush lower as longs get squeezed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the 1.9881 taker ratio uptick + RSI bouncing off oversold on 5m could stage a reclaim of ~131-132; a reclaim with momentum invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 128.49; stop_loss 131.85 above the recent bounce/EMA cluster (~2.6%, within 1h atr 1.08% × multi-bar range); take_profit_1 at 124.65 toward the 5d_low zone, ~2.99% / 1.14x the stop distance, reachable given avg 24h traversal 3.57% and p90 range 9.4%. 6. EXPECTATION: fading ADX and mean-reverting Hurst temper conviction, so meaningful expire probability.
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