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AAVEUSD short — 4 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 128.07 and stopped out at 131.4 after 2.7 hours, closing at -2.60%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-04 05:08 |
| Entry | 128.07 |
| Stop-loss | 131.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 125.628 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 124 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 131.4 |
| Realized P&L | -2.60% |
| Time open | 2.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (15m/1h/4h bear_aligned, 5m mixed from a bounce), ADX_1h 17.9 slope -0.50 (weak and fading), choppiness 47.8 (mid/chop), ER-10 0.089 / ER-30 0.070 (near-zero — path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.40 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a weakly bear-stacked but genuinely chop-prone, directionless tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: thin SHORT lean — HTF stack is bear_aligned on 15m/1h/4h and agg OI collapsed -44.8% 24h (deleveraging), but 4h net +2.64% and taker 1.21 show a live bounce pushing against it; price is only -0.84 z and +2.9% off 5d low, so it's two-sided but the HTF structure favors the short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment — three of four TFs bear_aligned with 4h RSI 45 under the stack, and the recent 4h bounce into resistance (price -8.3% from 5d high, funding_z +1.43 crowded-long building) sets up a fade back toward the mean. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the 4h up-impulse (net +2.64%) continuing through the 15m/1h bear EMAs with taker buyers sustaining >1.2 would reclaim the stack and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 128.07; stop beyond the local bounce high / invalidation at 131.40 (~2.6% — within the ~6.4% avg daily range); take_profit_1 at 124.00 structural support below (~3.18% down, R:R ~1.22, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: noisy chop tape, modest edge — p_tp1 41, p_sl 35, p_expire 24.
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