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DOGEUSD short — 4 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.074203 and stopped out at 0.07548 after 3.1 hours, closing at -1.72%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-04 05:08 |
| Entry | 0.074203 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07548 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.073217 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07256 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.29 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.07548 |
| Realized P&L | -1.72% |
| Time open | 3.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish (all 5m/15m/1h/4h bear_aligned), 1h ADX 27.2 slope -0.11 (genuine trend, barely fading), ADX-20 20.2, choppiness 35.6 (<38 = strongly trending), ER-10 0.24 / ER-30 0.01 (noisy, nets nowhere longer-term), Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 99.99% — a genuine bear trend with mean-reverting character. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — the HTF EMA stack is unanimous and choppiness confirms real trend; no bullish structural counter. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: cluster (a) HTF trend fully aligned bearish + cluster (b) flow — agg OI -1.6% with oi_momentum accelerating_down, taker ~0.99 (slight sell lean), funding z +1.27 (longs paying, crowded) — trend and flow both point down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at z-20d -1.34, only +1.4% off the 5d/20d/90d low, and top-trader pos ratio 2.78 (heavily long) with Hurst 0.33 — a mean-reversion bounce off lows would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.074203; stop above recent 5d-high-direction swing / reclaim at 0.075480 (~1.72% stop, within ~1x 4h ATR 1.59% on 4h / rv context); stretch TP down at 0.072560 (~2.21% move, R:R ~1.29, inside clamps) — a push toward fresh lows reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.58% and 7d-RV 98th pctile. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors short but stretched-near-lows and top-traders-long temper it.
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