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AAVEUSD short — 4 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 124.6249 and stopped out at 128.1 after 1.8 hours, closing at -2.79%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-04 03:08 |
| Entry | 124.6249 |
| Stop-loss | 128.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 122.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 120.75 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 128.1 |
| Realized P&L | -2.79% |
| Time open | 1.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear_aligned), ADX_1h 20.1 slope +3.69 (firming toward genuine trend), choppiness 39.7 (just above trending threshold), ER-10 0.65 clean short-run but ER-30 0.21 noisy longer path, Hurst 0.40 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a bearish-stacked tape with a fresh active DOWN impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net_move -2.09% 4h / -3.23% 12h, full bearish stack, OI collapsing (accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -2.99). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend fully bearish with a fresh 4h/12h down-impulse confirmed by accelerating_down OI and sub-1.0 taker ratio (0.937) — flow and structure both point down; AAVE short is the historically favored side here (recent same-regime short won +2.39%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI oversold across all TFs (5m 29.9, 15m 30.6, 1h 30.6) and z_score -1.73 at 5d low — a mean-reversion bounce off oversold would invalidate; top_trader_pos_ratio 2.13 (heavily long) also warns. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 124.62; stop above the recent swing/reclaim at 128.10 (~2.8%, within ~0.5-1.5x rv range); stretch target down at 120.75 (~3.1%, ~1.1x stop distance, structural continuation toward prior low, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce risk and heavy top-trader long positioning temper this; weak ADX means grind not thrust.
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