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BTCUSD short — 4 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 76,567.5 and stopped out at 77,870 after 2.9 hours, closing at -1.70%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-04 02:53 |
| Entry | 76,567.5 |
| Stop-loss | 77,870 |
| Take-profit 1 | 75,477 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 74,750 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.40 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 77,870 |
| Realized P&L | -1.70% |
| Time open | 2.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all EMA bear-aligned), 1h ADX 22.5 but slope -2.35 (fading), choppiness 51.6 (middling), ER_10 0.65 (clean recent leg) / ER_30 0.04 (nets nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.38 (persistent-down/MR-ish), HMM calm — a genuine bear trend that is extended and losing momentum, price sitting just +0.04% off its 5d/20d/90d low. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves negative across horizons (-1.64/-1.01/-0.14% at 4h/12h/24h), fresh 4h leg down, taker ratio 0.878 (sell-skewed), fear_greed 34. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full bearish MTF stack plus OI momentum accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.84) and agg_oi_24h -1.25% shows shorts/longs unwinding into weakness, taker flow sellers in control. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is pressed against its 90d/5d/20d low (+0.04%) with rolling z -1.46 and 15m RSI 29.8 oversold — a sharp mean-reversion bounce off this floor would invalidate; top-trader pos ratio 1.75 (longs leaning in) is the contra cluster. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 76,567.52; stop above the recent 4h swing / invalidation at 77,870 (stop dist ~1.70%, within 0.5-1.5x rv_24h range); take_profit_1 stretch at 74,750 — a reach below the floor, ~2.37% / RR ~1.4x, reachable in 24h given avg_move_24h 1.16% plus trend extension. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but extended at a known low with oversold RSI and top-trader longs — p_tp1 46, p_sl 36, p_expire 18.
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