BTCUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 78,189.3 and stopped out at 77,050 after 7.6 hours, closing at -1.46%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 21:35 |
| Entry | 78,189.3 |
| Stop-loss | 77,050 |
| Take-profit 1 | 78,999.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,540 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 77,050 |
| Realized P&L | -1.46% |
| Time open | 7.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, all TFs EMA bull_aligned, ADX_1h 57.8 (extreme trend) but slope -4.87 (fading), choppiness 60.1 (drifting toward range-bound), ER_10 0.54/ER_30 0.40, Hurst 0.59, HMM calm — a powerful bull trend now DECELERATING, price +7.4% on day pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs (-1.36%). 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean by HTF trend but the picture is stretched — 4h RSI 92.9 deeply overbought, rolling z +2.75, RV at 99.5th pctile, OI momentum accelerating_down with recent-half OI -2.98% (longs unwinding), ADX fading — a late-stage extended trend, so take a cautious trend-aligned long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: dominant HTF trend (4/4 bull, all EMAs aligned, ADX 57+) plus top-trader pos ratio 2.01 heavily long and taker 1.05 — trend-following bias remains up despite exhaustion signs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 92.9 + z 2.75 + fading ADX + OI unwinding = a sharp mean-reverting pullback from the highs would invalidate long quickly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 78,189; stop below 77,050 recent structural support (~1.46% ≈ within the elevated RV range); stretch TP at 79,540 (~1.73% ≈ 1.18x stop distance), a push back to yesterday's momentum highs, R:R ~1.18. 6. EXPECTATION: given extreme overbought + fading trend + OI unwind against a still-strong HTF trend, near-even with pullback risk elevated.
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