BTCUSD long — 22 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 77,097.9 and stopped out at 75,780 after 24 hours, closing at -1.71%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-22 05:20 |
| Entry | 77,097.9 |
| Stop-loss | 75,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 78,095.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,760 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 75,780 |
| Realized P&L | -1.71% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h/15m EMA bull_aligned but mtf_alignment mixed (2/4), ADX_1h 47.6 with -5.2 slope (strong trend but FADING fast), choppiness 60.1 (drifting range-bound), ER_10 0.026 (near-dead near-term efficiency), Hurst 0.57, HMM calm — a powerful up-move now stalling/consolidating near the 5d/20d/90d high (-2.7%). 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean by HTF trend and structure, but stretched — rolling_z +2.13, RV at 99th pctile, 4h RSI 80.5 overbought, and last 4h net -0.90% shows a pullback; still trend-aligned side wins. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend + positioning — top_trader_pos_ratio 1.99 (heavy long), OI accelerating_up, ETF net +$307M inflow yesterday, funding positive but not extreme (z 1.59); dip-in-uptrend long favored while 5m RSI 23 (oversold) hints at bounce. 4. PRE-MORTEM: fading ADX + z-score +2.13 + 4h overbought = failed retest of the high and rollover below the pullback low invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,098; stop 75,780 below the recent pullback swing (~1.7%, within ~1x the 24h RV/ADR ~2.8-4.8%); stretch TP 78,760 at prior 5d-high resistance (~2.16% up, RR ~1.26, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stalling and stretched — modest edge.
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