ETHUSD long — 22 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,436.9 and stopped out at 2,384.5 after 23.5 hours, closing at -2.15%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-22 05:20 |
| Entry | 2,436.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,384.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,474.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,500 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,384.5 |
| Realized P&L | -2.15% |
| Time open | 23.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 despite 15m/1h/4h all bull_aligned, ADX_1h towering 53.7 but slope -4.5 (strong trend fading hard from peak), ER-10 0.11 / ER-30 0.21 (very noisy path), choppiness 46.7 mid, Hurst 0.61 mildly trending, HMM calm — a strong bull structure but with sharp near-term momentum loss (net -2.74% last 4h). 2. LEAN CHECK: net long lean on the higher-TF structure (bull-aligned EMA stack, +3.5% 24h, ETH ETF +$184M inflow, OI accelerating_up, top-traders 1.73 pos-ratio long), but freshest tape is a pullback — a shallow long into oversold 5m/15m RSI (17/29) within an intact 4h uptrend. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: 4h EMA bull stack + ADX 66 + top_trader_pos_ratio 1.73 long-tilted + OI accelerating_up + fresh ETF inflow = trend-aligned longs buying the dip; oversold intraday RSI marks a likely bounce zone rather than trend break. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker ratio 0.908 (sell-tilted) plus the sharp -4.5 ADX fade and RSI 77 at 4h (overbought/extension) mean the pullback could deepen; a break below the recent swing invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 2436.87; stop below the intraday swing at 2384.5 (~2.15% risk, within ~1x the elevated RV/ATR); stretch TP at 2500 (~2.59% up, R:R ~1.2, structural resistance near 5d high area within 4% clamp). 6. EXPECTATION: bounce is plausible but momentum fading and taker sell-tilt cap it.
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