BTCUSD long — 28 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 79,058.3 and stopped out at 77,720 after 6.1 hours, closing at -1.69%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-28 10:08 |
| Entry | 79,058.3 |
| Stop-loss | 77,720 |
| Take-profit 1 | 80,133.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,850 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.34 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 77,720 |
| Realized P&L | -1.69% |
| Time open | 6.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 with 4h/1h EMA bull_aligned but 5m bear_aligned and 15m mixed; 4h ADX 40 strong yet 1h ADX 21 with -3.8 slope fading, choppiness 32 (trending edge), ER_10 0.75 but ER_30 0.05 (net-nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.49, HMM calm conf 1.0 — an intact HTF bull structure currently in a sharp near-term pullback (net -0.98%/4h, -1.48%/12h). 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided — HTF bull vs fresh downside momentum — but leans long: 4h/1h stacks bull, 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (26/29), top_trader_pos_ratio 2.11 heavily long, taker 0.76 recent but hourly history shows persistent buy dominance earlier; price only -2% off 90d high. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment + top-trader positioning — 4h bull ADX 40, top-trader position ratio 2.11 leaning long, and oversold 5m/15m RSI at the 5d-low proximity (+2.85% above 5d low) suggests mean-reversion bounce within the bull. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI momentum accelerating_down + taker 0.76 sell-tilted show real distribution — a break below the 5d low (~76,800) invalidates the dip-buy and confirms trend break. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 79,058; stop below 5d-low structure at 77,720 (~1.69% risk, within rv_24h/ATR range); stretch TP at 80,850 (~2.27% / 1.34x risk) toward reclaim of prior consolidation, inside 4% clamp and under 1.5x. 6. EXPECTATION: modest edge with contradicting near-term flow, meaningful expire risk in low-vol calm regime.
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