BTCUSD long — 31 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 78,584.3 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,568 with a price move of -1.29%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 16:23 |
| Entry | 78,584.3 |
| Stop-loss | 77,340 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,397.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,940 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,568 |
| Realized P&L | -1.29% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/4h EMA bull, 1h bear), 1h ADX 17.8 slope -3.6 fading, choppiness 60.8 (range-bound edge), ER_10 0.23/ER_30 0.06 (net-nowhere), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm conf 1.0 — an intact HTF bull structure grinding in transitional chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans modestly long — fresh near-term momentum net +0.83%/4h and +1.24%/12h reasserting after a -0.95%/24h dip, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.18), top-trader position ratio 2.12 heavily long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/positioning — OI momentum accelerating_up with fresh positive 4h/12h impulse off the 5d-low proximity (+1.56% above 5d low), top-trader pos ratio 2.12 long, and 3 of 4 TFs EMA bull-aligned, so the trend-aligned side is long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker 1h 0.889 (sellers active) and 1h EMA bear — a break below the 5d-low structure (~77.3k) with taker staying sub-0.9 invalidates the reclaim. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent swing/5d-low zone at 77,340 (~1.58% risk, within the ~3% daily range); take_profit 79,940 stretch (~1.72% reward, R:R ~1.09) at the 5d-high reject zone, reachable within 24h given avg_move_pct_24h 1.33 and p90 range 5.79%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with a modest long lean — p_tp1 43, p_sl 34, p_expire 23.
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