BTCUSD long — 31 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 78,761.1 and stopped out at 77,880 after 3.4 hours, closing at -1.12%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-31 09:08 |
| Entry | 78,761.1 |
| Stop-loss | 77,880 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,414.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,850 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 77,880 |
| Realized P&L | -1.12% |
| Time open | 3.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (15m/4h EMA bull, 1h bear, 5m mixed), 1h ADX 24.4 but slope -4.3 fading, choppiness 52.9 (mid/chop), ER_10 0.47 / ER_30 0.10 (net-nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a decelerating HTF structure grinding in transitional chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans modestly long — net +0.91%/4h and +0.93%/24h fresh momentum, current taker 1.27 with net-buy tilt in the recent hours, top-trader position ratio 2.10 (heavily long) and firming (+0.019 4h), 4h/15m EMA bull. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: near-term momentum + positioning cluster — top traders positioned 2.1x long and adding, taker buy 1.27, and the 4h/15m EMA stacks stay bull-aligned; trend-aligned on the higher TF that carries the structure. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h EMA bear + fading ADX + OI bleeding (-1.4% 24h, decelerating, oi z -0.46) and BTC ETF -201.9M outflow means a rejection at the 5d high (-2.29% overhead) flushes this back down — invalidation is loss of the recent 4h impulse base. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 78,761; stop below the recent impulse low / structural support at 77,880 (~1.12% risk, inside ~1.0-1.5x the ~1.33% 24h traversal); stretch TP at 79,850 (~1.38% reward) into the area beneath the 5d high, R:R ~1.23. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with modest long lean and heavy expiry base rate on this asset → p_tp1 43, p_sl 33, p_expire 24.
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