BTCUSD long — 3 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 81,292.8 and stopped out at 79,650 after 17.2 hours, closing at -2.02%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-03 19:18 |
| Entry | 81,292.8 |
| Stop-loss | 79,650 |
| Take-profit 1 | 82,737.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 83,700 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.47 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 79,650 |
| Realized P&L | -2.02% |
| Time open | 17.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 bull-EMA (5m/15m/4h aligned, 1h mixed), 1h ADX 33 slope +8 firming, choppiness 26.7 (strongly trending), ER_10 0.83 clean impulse, Hurst 0.44, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a genuine upside breakout impulse, +5.2%/24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly LONG — price sits AT 5d/20d/90d high (dist 0.0 to highs, +6.2% off lows), OI accelerating_up, taker buy-tilted. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — OI z +2.1/+2.1 accelerating_up with +8.5% OI/24h confirms new money chasing the breakout, top_trader pos ratio 1.87 leaning long, funding only mildly positive (z 0.76, not crowded) so not exhausted; this is a fresh high-conviction breakout. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across TFs (1h 80, 4h 75) and z_score +3.06 with RV at 98.5th pctile — a mean-reversion snapback that breaks back below ~80,000 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 81,292.80; stop below the breakout retest / recent structure at 79,650 (~2.0% risk, ~1.5x avg 24h traversal but justified given RV 51 elevated); TP1 stretch at 83,700 (~2.96% / ~1.47x risk) an honest extension level within the 4% clamp and reachable given 4h atr 1.28% and momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched/overbought tempers upside continuation odds.
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