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BTCUSD long — 14 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 79,392.3 and stopped out at 78,180 after 3.4 hours, closing at -1.53%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-14 20:24 |
| Entry | 79,392.3 |
| Stop-loss | 78,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 80,284.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,880 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 78,180 |
| Realized P&L | -1.53% |
| Time open | 3.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bull-EMA, 1h/4h mixed), 1h ADX 34.2 slope +6.6 (trend firming), choppiness 43.5, ER_10 0.62 / ER_30 0.38, Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a transitional tape with a fresh up-impulse firming on lower TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans LONG — net +0.74%/4h, +2.07%/12h, +2.59%/24h fresh positive momentum, price +2.71% on day, sitting at the 5d high (+0.000). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + flow cluster — buy-tilted taker over the past day and firming ADX with lower-TF bull-EMA stack; top-trader position ratio 1.97 leans long, agg_OI +2.1% supports the push, RSI overbought but 4h RSI 68 not extreme. 4. PRE-MORTEM: last hourly taker 0.6269 (heavy sell) and oi_momentum accelerating_down + funding_z -0.86 (unwinding) hint the impulse may be exhausting at the 5d high; a rejection back below the recent breakout invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the fresh-impulse invalidation at 78,180 (~1.53% risk, within rv/atr band); stretch target 80,880 (~1.29x risk, ~1.87% above entry), a structural extension of the 5d-high breakout, reachable within 24h given avg 24h move 0.84% and current +2.59% momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: firm trend but overbought at extremum with a mixed exhaustion signal — p_tp1 46, p_sl 33, p_expire 21.
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