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BTCUSD long — 14 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 78,154.4 and stopped out at 77,180 after 6.9 hours, closing at -1.25%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-14 23:58 |
| Entry | 78,154.4 |
| Stop-loss | 77,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 78,889.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,380 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 77,180 |
| Realized P&L | -1.25% |
| Time open | 6.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 (5m mixed, 15m bull-EMA, 1h/4h mixed), 1h ADX 33.9 but slope -0.30 (fading), choppiness 41.6, ER_10 0.003 / ER_30 0.14 (near-zero recent efficiency — path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a transitional, low-efficiency chop tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: net +1.75%/24h and +0.52%/12h are positive but net -1.02%/4h shows fresh near-term rollover; top-trader position ratio 2.07 (strongly long) and daily +1.76% give a modest LONG tilt, but OI z-score -1.94 accelerating_down and taker 0.96 sell-tilted last hour cut against it — modest long lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest confirming cluster is positioning — top_trader_pos_ratio 2.07 with a positive 4h delta (+0.076) plus a fresh +$9.7M ETF inflow and fear/greed 57 (greed) — big money sits long into a higher-timeframe up-day; price sits +2.1% off 5d/20d/90d low, not stretched at highs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the -1.02%/4h rollover plus accelerating_down OI (oi_5m_z -1.94) means longs are already bleeding — a break below the recent 4h swing (~77,300) invalidates and the thin-efficiency tape flips down. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 78,154; stop 77,180 below the 5d-low structure and the 4h rollover swing (~1.25% risk, inside the ~2.7% avg daily range); stretch TP 79,380 at the 5d-high zone (-1.34% distance = ~1.57% reward, R:R ~1.26, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: low-efficiency chop with mild long lean caps upside — p_tp1 41, p_sl 36, p_expire 23.
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