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BTCUSD long — 4 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 86,095.9 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 85,926 with a price move of -0.20%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-04 22:05 |
| Entry | 86,095.9 |
| Stop-loss | 84,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 87,088.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 87,750 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 85,926 |
| Realized P&L | -0.20% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish (EMAs bull-aligned 5m-4h), 1h ADX 33.3 slope +7.5 (strong trend firming), choppiness 39.6 / ER_10 0.85 (clean recent one-way push), Hurst 0.41 (mildly mean-reverting longer-horizon), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a genuine, accelerating bull-trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG lean — full bull alignment, +1.64% 24h, taker last bucket 1.04 and recent buckets lean buy-side, top-trader pos ratio 1.81 and rising (4h chg +0.055). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — strongest cluster is HTF trend (4/4 bull EMA stack + ADX 33 firming +7.5 + ER_10 0.85 clean) backed by top-trader positioning tilt (pos ratio 1.81, delta +0.056) and modest buy-side taker flow. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is pinned at 5d/20d/90d high (-0.73%) with 1h RSI 81.7 overbought and rolling z +2.32 (stretched) — a reversal/mean-reversion from the extreme would invalidate; oi_momentum accelerating_down and oi_change_recent_half -0.45% is a mild warning that the push is on fading OI. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry at mark 86,096; invalidation below the recent consolidation shelf — stop at 84,780 (~1.53% below, roughly 1.2x the 24h realized range of ~1.6%, beyond a round level). Stretch TP at 87,750 (~1.92% above = ~1.26x stop distance, inside 4% clamp), targeting a breakout extension above the stacked highs. 6. EXPECTATION: trend strong but extended at highs on fading OI, so meaningful chop/stall risk.
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