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ETHUSD long — 4 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,727.6 and stopped out at 2,688 after 17.7 hours, closing at -1.45%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-04 22:35 |
| Entry | 2,727.6 |
| Stop-loss | 2,688 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,761.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,784 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.43 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,688 |
| Realized P&L | -1.45% |
| Time open | 17.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bullish 4/4, 1h ADX 28.6 with +4.6 slope (strengthening trend), choppiness 38.8 (edge of trending), ER-10 0.69 (clean recent path) — a genuine bull trend, cleaner than most prior ETH reads; HMM calm, Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting undertone) and z_score +1.92 flag some extension. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — EMA unanimity + trend-building ADX + buy-heavy taker (1.25) all point up; no coherent short case except RSI overbought and OI drift. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full bullish stack across all TFs with accelerating 1h ADX and top-trader position ratio 1.58 long (account ratio 1.46), supported by +1.03% net 4h momentum and btc correlation +0.79 with BTC ETF inflow backdrop. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_down (oi_change -1.0%, agg_oi -15%) with ETH ETF outflow (-0.77x) means this rally lacks fresh OI fuel — a stall and mean-reversion from z +1.92 / RSI 75-77 overbought is the key risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2727.55; stop below the 5d/intraday structure at 2688 (~1.45% / ~0.7x avg daily range, beyond the invalidation of trend); stretch target 2784 (~2.07% up, ~1.42x stop distance, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~0.9% but p90 range 6.2%), toward the 5d high retest and above. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but extended and OI-starved, so modest edge with meaningful expire risk.
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