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BTCUSD long — 11 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 83,936.2 and stopped out at 83,180 after 18.5 hours, closing at -0.90%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-11 17:50 |
| Entry | 83,936.2 |
| Stop-loss | 83,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 84,496.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 84,870 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 83,180 |
| Realized P&L | -0.90% |
| Time open | 18.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 2/4 (5m/15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h mixed), 1h ADX 26.6 slope +9.5 (firming hard), choppiness 32.7 / ER_10 0.81 (recent push very clean) but ER_30 0.39, Hurst 0.45 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a firming short-TF uptrend emerging out of chop, breakout character on the lower TFs. 2. LEAN CHECK: LONG lean — net moves positive across 4h/12h/24h (+1.08/+1.12/+1.05%), OI accelerating_up, top-traders net long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow+OI cluster is the strongest — oi_5m_z +2.00 / oi_15m_z +2.27 accelerating_up with net-positive momentum, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.56 (longs leading), taker 1.10 and the ADX slope +9.5 confirms a fresh impulse; this is trend-aligned with the 5m/15m bull stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 78 / 1h RSI 76 are overbought and Hurst is mean-reverting — a rejection back under ~83.3k (the breakout shelf) invalidates the thrust and signals exhaustion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 83,936; stop 83,180 (below the reclaimed shelf / ~0.9% = ~0.4x the 2.3% ADR, snug to the invalidation); stretch TP 84,870 (~1.11%, R:R ~1.24, inside clamps) toward the 5d-high zone (-1.9% sits ~85.5k, so 84.87k is reachable within 24h). 6. EXPECTATION: overbought lower TFs cap upside continuation, so meaningful p_expire; p_tp1 47 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 19.
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