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BTCUSD long — 13 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 83,588.8 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 83,502 with a price move of -0.10%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 05:35 |
| Entry | 83,588.8 |
| Stop-loss | 82,520 |
| Take-profit 1 | 84,345.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 84,850 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 83,502 |
| Realized P&L | -0.10% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 (5m bull-aligned, 15m/4h mixed, 1h bear-aligned), 1h ADX 21.6 slope -3.5 (fading), ER_10 0.19 / ER_30 0.01 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 38.9, Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a low-conviction chop regime with a fresh short-term up-pulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: a modest LONG lean — net_move_4h +1.43% and net_12h +1.37% show fresh upside momentum, taker 1.26 buy-skewed, top-trader pos ratio 1.56 long-tilted, OI accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +0.32, recent-half +0.59%) — flow and positioning both lean long despite the 1h bear EMA. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is flow+positioning — accelerating OI into a buy-skewed tape with top traders net-long 1.56 and funding only mildly positive, consistent with the fresh 4h/12h bounce; price sits just -0.70% off 5d high so the bounce has room into that resistance. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a roll-over back under ~83,000 (where the 1h bear EMA stack reasserts) would invalidate — the 1h trend is still bearish and ADX is fading, so this is a counter-1h bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 83,588; stop 82,520 below the recent swing/round-level cushion (~1.28% ≈ 1x of the elevated rv), take_profit_1 84,850 at the 5d-high resistance band (~1.51% up, R:R ~1.18, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: elevated RV + chop keeps p_expire meaningful; a thin flow-driven lean.
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