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PAXGUSD long — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,193 and stopped out at 4,169 after 9.1 hours, closing at -0.57%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 04:50 |
| Entry | 4,193 |
| Stop-loss | 4,169 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,208.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,219.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,169 |
| Realized P&L | -0.57% |
| Time open | 9.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m bull-aligned/overbought RSI 71, 15m/1h/4h all mixed), 1h ADX 29.8 but slope -5.2 (genuine trend fading hard), ER-10 0.43 / ER-30 0.08 (recent push nets nothing over 30 bars), Hurst 0.46 (near-random), choppiness 41 neutral, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm gold tape with a recent short-TF thrust (net_4h +0.92%) now fading, flat over 24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — recent 4h/12h net moves positive, taker ratio 1.42, top-trader pos ratio 4.12 heavily long, but 24h flat and z-score +1.40 says price is extended. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short-TF buyers in control (5m bull-aligned, taker buy 1.42, top traders 4:1 long, net_4h +0.92% firm) alongside a steady macro gold tape; trend-aligned on the fast frames even as the 1h cools. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at the 5d/20d/90d high (dist -0.25%) with z-score +1.40 and overbought RSI 71 — a rejection off this ceiling with ADX fading flips this to mean-reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4193.02; stop below the recent intraday support cluster at 4169 (0.57% ≈ 0.5x the 1.08% 7d range, matching this asset's realized ~0.55% stops); stretch TP 4219.5 (0.63%, R:R ~1.1, inside 4% clamp) at a modest extension above the 90d high. 6. EXPECTATION: at a multi-period high with fading ADX, breakout continuation is live but mean-reversion risk is real; p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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