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BTCUSD long — 21 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 84,521 and stopped out at 83,540 after 10.8 hours, closing at -1.16%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-21 14:54 |
| Entry | 84,521 |
| Stop-loss | 83,540 |
| Take-profit 1 | 85,282.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 85,790 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.29 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 83,540 |
| Realized P&L | -1.16% |
| Time open | 10.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h all bull EMA-aligned (4h mixed), 1h ADX 40.4 slope +5.6 (strong, firming uptrend), choppiness 38.0 (trending edge), ER_10 0.83 (clean one-way push), Hurst 0.36 mean-reverting on the longer path, HMM calm — a strong firming 1h bull-trend pressing against 5d/20d/90d highs (all +0.000). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG lean — net +1.40/+2.12/+1.54% across 4h/12h/24h, price at highs, OI accelerating_up with +2.5/+2.6 OI z-scores, taker 1.22 buy-skewed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — bull EMA stack across lower TFs with ADX 40 firming, OI accelerating_up (+3.4% recent half) alongside rising price = fresh long money fueling the breakout, top-trader pos ratio 1.86 long-heavy, agg_oi +6.6% 24h. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply overbought (1h 79, 15m 80), rolling z +2.89, funding z +1.65 rising — a crowded, stretched long into resistance that mean-reverts sharply would invalidate; a loss of the breakout level back below ~83,700 breaks the thesis. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 83,540 just below the recent breakout shelf (~1.16% risk, within the ~2.3% avg daily range); take_profit_1 85,790 as the stretch, ~1.5% above entry, reward:risk ≈ 1.30, a reachable extension of the current leg within 24h given atr and recent net moves. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend/flow but overbought/stretched caps follow-through; honest distribution below.
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