BTCUSD short — 28 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,770.8 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 64,071 with a price move of -0.47%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-28 15:33 |
| Entry | 63,770.8 |
| Stop-loss | 64,950 |
| Take-profit 1 | 62,870.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,270 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 64,071 |
| Realized P&L | -0.47% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/15m EMA bear_aligned, 4h/5m mixed (alignment 2/4), ADX_1h 31.3 rising (+1.82 slope) with regime tagged bear_trend, Hurst ~0.49 (near-random), choppiness 49 (mid), HMM calm — a bear-leaning trend with genuine 1h momentum but no clean multi-TF confirmation. 2. LEAN CHECK: net_move_24h -1.17% and -1.15% price change, funding heavily unwound (funding_z -2.15, agg_z -2.08) with OI bleeding (oi_24h -1.5%, oi_5m_z -1.13, decelerating) — the tape leans short, though top-traders sit long (pos ratio 1.68) as a counter. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend-alignment — 1h bear stack + rising ADX 31 + fresh downside net moves, and the funding/OI unwind shows longs capitulating rather than fresh shorts crowding; Fear index 29 and rolling_z -1.37 fit a downside-drift regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: last taker ratio flipped to 1.08 (buyers back this hour) and 5m/15m RSI ~64 elevated — a reclaim of 5d_high (~65.4k, +2.6%) with momentum would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing / 5d_high buffer at 64,950 (beyond the reclaim invalidation); entry at mark 63,770.84; TP1 stretch down at 62,270, a structural level below the 5d_low band, ~1.24x the stop distance (risk 1,179 vs reward 1,501, R:R ~1.27) reachable given avg 24h traversal 1.24% + elevated RV. 6. EXPECTATION: honest distribution given 38% asset WR and mixed MTF — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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