AAVEUSD long — 28 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 99.99 and stopped out at 97.35 after 19.3 hours, closing at -2.64%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-28 15:33 |
| Entry | 99.99 |
| Stop-loss | 97.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 102.186 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 103.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.39 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 97.35 |
| Realized P&L | -2.64% |
| Time open | 19.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h/5m EMA stacks bull_aligned, ADX_1h 26 (genuine trend) though slope fading (-3.1), Hurst 0.60 persistent, choppiness 52 mid, HMM calm — a real but cooling uptrend. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence tilts long — net_move_4h +3.05%, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d high (-1.9%), OI accelerating_up with strong z (+1.68), top-trader pos ratio 1.58 long. 3. THESIS: fresh up-thrust into the highs with confirming OI expansion (oi_5m_z +1.68, agg_oi +13%, recent-half OI +4.1%) and taker 1.22 buy-skew, top-traders leaning long — a trend-aligned breakout attempt at 100. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RV in 87th pctile and RSI overbought on 5m/15m (~70) with fading ADX means this thrust can exhaust and rev fast; a break back below ~97.5 kills the breakout. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 99.99, stop 97.35 (below recent consolidation shelf and the 4h ATR of ~2.1%), stretch TP 103.65 at the next extension above the cleared highs (~3.66% up vs 2.64% risk, R:R ~1.39). 6. EXPECTATION: overbought + fading ADX caps p_tp1; p_tp1 40, p_sl 38, p_expire 22.
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