BTCUSD short — 31 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 62,526.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 63,095.5 with a price move of -0.91%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-31 14:21 |
| Entry | 62,526.5 |
| Stop-loss | 63,540 |
| Take-profit 1 | 61,700.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 61,150 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.36 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 63,095.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.91% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA stacks all bear_aligned (4h mixed), ADX_1h 22.7 rising (+0.84 slope), choppiness 21.9 (strongly trending), Hurst 0.47 mild mean-reversion, Fear&Greed 25 extreme fear — a genuine down-leg still carrying trend energy. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly short-side; trend, momentum and flow all point down, no bullish tiebreak. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — net_move -2.1% (4h)/-3.3% (24h) fresh, agg_OI -2.17% and oi_15m_z -1.92 with decelerating momentum (positions being cut into the drop), taker ratio 0.816 (selling last hour), funding still positive (agg_z 1.45) so longs remain to be flushed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold across TFs (5m 11.5, 15m 14.8, 1h 20.6) and z_score -2.79 at the 5d/20d/90d low — a reflex bounce/reclaim of ~63.2k would invalidate the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 62,526; stop above the invalidation at 63,540 (beyond the reclaim shelf, ~1.6% risk); TP1 stretch at 61,150 near the round support / next liq shelf, ~2.2% reward = R:R ~1.35. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold condition tempers immediate downside, so meaningful bounce risk kept in mind.
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