BTCUSD short — 6 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 64,226.3 and stopped out at 65,100 after 22.2 hours, closing at -1.36%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-06 13:11 |
| Entry | 64,226.3 |
| Stop-loss | 65,100 |
| Take-profit 1 | 63,670.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 63,300 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 65,100 |
| Realized P&L | -1.36% |
| Time open | 22.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 (mixed) — 5m/15m EMA bear, 1h/4h bull; ADX_1h 23 but slope -3.5 (fading), adx_20 22, choppiness 48, ER_10 0.22 / ER_30 0.03 (near-zero efficiency), Hurst 0.41 (mean-reversion), HMM calm — a low-efficiency, fading-trend chop tape, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest short lean — net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-0.68/-0.54/-0.27%), OI accelerating_down (5m z -2.0, agg OI -1.99%), price -1.08% off 5d high; counterweights are top-trader pos ratio 1.51 long and 5m/15m RSI oversold (27-28). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI accelerating_down while price fades from the 5d high with taker ratio cooling, suggesting longs unwinding into the recent pullback; this fades a fading 1h/4h bull rather than trend-aligning, so keep conf modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (27/28) + top-trader positioning still net-long 1.51 could snap back a mean-reversion bounce off the 5d low that reclaims 64.5k. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing / 5d-high shelf at 65,100 (~1.36% above); target down toward the intraday support / prior 12h base near 63,300 (~1.44% away), giving R:R ~1.06, well inside clamps and reachable given avg_move_24h ~0.95% but stretched to ~1.5 ATR-1h span. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with weak edge — modest short lean, meaningful expire probability given low efficiency.
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