DOGEUSD short — 6 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.068788 and stopped out at 0.07015 after 22.8 hours, closing at -1.98%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-06 13:41 |
| Entry | 0.068788 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07015 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.067745 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.06705 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.07015 |
| Realized P&L | -1.98% |
| Time open | 22.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF (4/4 bear-aligned 5m→4h), but 1h ADX only 19.7 (transitional), ADX-20 15, choppiness 39.5 (borderline trending), ER-10 0.38/ER-30 0.21 (mediocre cleanliness), Hurst 0.245 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a soft bear drift more than a clean impulse trend, but freshly flushing (net -1.54%/24h, -0.48%/4h). 2. LEAN CHECK: EMA stacks all bear, net moves all negative, 1h RSI 31.8 and 15m RSI 34.7 (oversold), z-score -2.79 (very extended below 20d mean), sitting near the 20d/90d low — this is a stretched bear flush, so the near-term lean is genuinely two-sided: continuation short vs oversold mean-revert bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the tiebreaker leans short — mtf full_bearish, ADX slope +4.3 (trend freshly strengthening), agg OI +1.99% with oi_momentum accelerating_up while price falls (new shorts pressing), funding negative/unwinding — trend-aligned continuation. Top-trader ratio 2.8 heavy long is a contrarian tailwind for shorts. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z-score -2.79 + Extreme Fear 25 + Hurst 0.245 mean-reverting screams a snapback; a reclaim of 0.0700 with momentum invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.068788; stop above the 4h structure and recent bounce zone at 0.070150 (~1.98% risk, within rv/atr band); stretch target down at 0.067050 (~2.53% ~1.28x risk) toward the next shelf below the 90d low, reachable given avg 24h traversal ~0.75% but this is an extended flush day. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion risk is real at this z-score, so keep p_sl elevated and meaningful p_expire.
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