BTCUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 64,265.2 and hit its target at 63,812.1 after 3 hours, closing at +0.71%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 15:38 |
| Entry | 64,265.2 |
| Stop-loss | 64,880 |
| Take-profit 1 | 63,812.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 63,510 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 63,812.1 |
| Realized P&L | +0.71% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear_aligned, 1h mixed, 4h still bull_aligned), ADX_1h 30.8 but slope -1.5 (fading), adx_20 24.7, choppiness 45.5, ER_10 0.51 / ER_30 0.18, Hurst 0.24 (strong mean-reversion), HMM calm — a fading down-impulse inside a broader transitional/mean-reverting tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh down-impulse (net_move_4h -1.29%, 12h -1.06%, 24h -1.46%) with OI accelerating_down (5m/15m z ~-3.2) — leveraged longs bleeding out — favors short continuation; but RSI 5m/15m deeply oversold (24-26), price sitting +0.05% off 5d low and Hurst 0.24 argue for a bounce. Two-sided, but the momentum + OI-flush cluster is the fresher, cleaner read; lean short into the fade with modest conviction. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI down -3.2% with accelerating_down momentum and OI z -3.2 confirms real deleveraging pressure, taker ratio mid (1.03) shows no aggressive dip-buying yet, and 5m/15m EMA stacks are bear_aligned — momentum points down toward the 5d low retest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSI (24/26) at the 5d low with Hurst 0.24 means a mean-reversion bounce could snap it back through 64,600 fast — a reclaim of the 1h EMA invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent 1h swing/EMA cluster at 64,880 (structural invalidation, ~0.96% risk, within the ~22% rv 24h range); target the 5d-low sweep zone at 63,510 (~1.17% reward, RR ~1.2, inside clamps, reachable given 24h avg traversal 0.64% and a live -1.46% impulse). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold at the low caps it; p_tp1 42, p_sl 34, p_expire 24.
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